3. Swing states
Who will carry the Midwest and the South?
If the recent past is any indication, this election may hinge more closely on how the electoral votes—not the popular vote—are distributed.
For context, in 2016 President Trump won the election despite losing New York and California, because he captured enough support in Southern and Midwestern states with mid-sized electoral vote totals (e.g., Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio, and Florida). This time, the hotly contested swing states worth watching are likely to feature Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Together, these six account for 101 of the 270 electoral votes needed for victory.