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Economy

Global economy scorecard

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The world at a glance

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Factors that affect the global economy

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Contribution to global GDP growth

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Global economic activity is expanding

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Manufacturing is improving globally

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Global monetary policy in action

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The Fed balance sheet has grown sharply

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Inflation across regions rises during rebound

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Where are we today?

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Where are we headed?

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Fed’s patience tested by inflation

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Insights from U.S. leading indicators

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A surprisingly strong start by U.S. GDP to 2021

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The U.S. job market is on the mend

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On average, the U.S. consumer is in good shape

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Changing consumer behavior

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Housing market has a supply problem

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Services sector sensitive to economic fluctuations

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As job market tightens, wages rise

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Confidence at a turning point

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Equities

Equity scorecard

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Volatility rose several times during this cycle

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Market resilience

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2021 dividends and buybacks are set to rebound

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Bull markets —
strong comeback each time

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Staying the course

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Cyclicals have performed well since the reopening

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Sector favorability – position for a continued advance

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S&P 500 Index sector composition over time

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Equity sector compositions have changed over time

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Dividend yields outside of the U.S. are attractive

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S&P 500 valuations under different interest rate regimes

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S&P 500 Index dividend yield is attractive

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Emerging Market Equities continue to recover

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International equities versus the U.S. dollar

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Trade impacts on developed market equities

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The recovery in cyclical stocks has ramped up

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Fixed Income

Fixed-income scorecard

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Yield available despite low rates

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Developed market yields remain low

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Yield curve still signaling positive future growth

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Municipal bond yields and default rates

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Real yields decline as inflation rises

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Higher duration increases interest rate sensitivity

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Credit market spreads

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Closing the gap?

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Real Assets

Real assets scorecard

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Commodity super cycles

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How does the current bull stack up?

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China is the big commodity consumer

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All that glitters…

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Global oil supply growth is lagging demand

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A tipping point for green energy

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Are renewables overtaking fossil fuels?

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A REIT is a REIT is a REIT, right? No.

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Alternative Investments

Alternative investments scorecard

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Diversification benefits of hedge funds

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Relative Value strategies could serve as a fixed income alternative

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Has a new regime for Macro trading begun?

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M&A activity is improving

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Downgrades and defaults have moderated for now

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Including crypto with a hedge fund allocation

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Opportunities in Private Equity

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Opportunities in Private Equity, continued

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Private Debt can provide an illiquidity premium

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Opportunities in private real assets

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Currencies

Currencies scorecard

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We expect a stable to weaker dollar in 2022

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The euro and pound weakened in Q3

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The euro and equity returns

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Impact of the U.S. dollar

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Emerging market currencies mirror the U.S. dollar

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Asset Allocation

Asset allocation scorecard

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Market conditions can determine the choice of strategy

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Expect lower returns for longer

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Factors that may reduce gross investment return

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Diversification may reduce downside risk

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Diversification may improve risk-adjusted returns

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Taking taxes into consideration adds value

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The greater the loss, the longer it takes
to break even

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Diversification may help reduce recovery time

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Timing the market is risky

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The cost of market timing

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Behavioral biases could be costly

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Asset values have grown over time

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Net flows of mutual funds (MFs) and exchange-traded funds (ETFs)

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Active versus passive heatmap

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Asset performance—
correlations

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Finding balance between risk and reward

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Moderate growth and income quilt chart

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