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Economy
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Economy
Equities
Fixed Income
Real Assets
Alternative Investments
Currencies
Asset Allocation

Economy

Economy highlights

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Global economy scorecard

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The world at a glance

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Factors that affect the global economy

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Contribution to global GDP growth

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European economic activity remains weak

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Manufacturing sentiment is mixed globally

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Global monetary policy in action

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Liquidity requires close monitoring as Fed tightens

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Moving toward central-bank inflation targets

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Federal interest payments are on the rise

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Where are we today?

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Where are we headed?

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Fed’s patience tested by inflation

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Share of services inflation has grown

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Insights from U.S. leading indicators

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U.S. economic slowdown likely ahead

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The U.S. job market remains tight

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On average, the U.S. consumer balance sheet is in good shape

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Consumer spending has softened recently

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U.S. housing market has weakened

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Services industries sensitive to economic fluctuations

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Wage growth is moderating, but remains elevated

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Confidence has steadied at lower levels

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Equities

Equities highlights

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Equity scorecard

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Seven stocks are driving S&P 500 Index performance

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Market resilience

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Staying the course

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Sector favorability — Position for late cycle/recession

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Earnings unlikely to escape a slowdown unscathed

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Stocks are typically forward-looking

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Elevated interest rates are a headwind

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Recessions pressure P/Es, recoveries spark a spike

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S&P 500 Index valuations under different interest rate regimes

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Trailing S&P 500 Index P/E and subsequent 1- and 5-year forward returns

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Equity risk premium dipped below historical averages

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Small-cap zombies near extremes

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Sector compositions differ by index and region

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Dividend yields outside of the U.S. are attractive

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Dollar strength is a headwind for international equity prices

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Developed Market valuations are quite compelling

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Fixed Income

Fixed-income highlights

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Fixed-income scorecard

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Unequal return potential as rates move higher or lower

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Most developed market bonds rallied in Q4

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Yield curve continues signaling a slowdown ahead

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Municipal bond yields and default rates

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Real rates: In positive territory

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The Fed in action — How do tightening cycles work?

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The Fed has signaled no more rate hikes this cycle

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When the Fed pivots…

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Credit market spreads

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Closing the gap?

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Real Assets

Real assets highlights

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Real assets scorecard

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Commodity super-cycles

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How does the current bull stack up?

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Diversification with commodities

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China is a big commodity consumer

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All that glitters…

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The world runs on energy

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Fossil fuel use per capita has moderated in recent decades

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Are renewables overtaking fossil fuels?

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A REIT is a REIT is a REIT, right? No.

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Alternative Investments

Alternative investments highlights

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Alternative investments scorecard

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Diversification with hedge funds

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Downside risk mitigation with hedge funds

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Stresses in the loan market build

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Has a new regime for Macro trading begun?

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Opportunities in Private Equity

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Illiquidity premium for Private Equity

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Private Debt can provide an illiquidity premium

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Opportunities in Private Real Estate

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Finding yield in alternative sources

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Currencies

Currencies highlights

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Currencies scorecard

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U.S. dollar expected to rise in the first part of 2024

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Euro and yen still under stronger dollar influence

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“De-dollarization” fears are overblown

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Local-currency vs. U.S. dollar-denominated returns

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Emerging market currencies have mirrored the U.S. dollar

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Asset Allocation

Asset allocation highlights

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Asset allocation scorecard

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Market conditions can determine the choice of strategy

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Expect returns near historical averages

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Diversification may reduce downside risk

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Diversification may improve risk-adjusted returns

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Taking taxes into consideration can add value

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The greater the loss, the longer it takes to break even

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The worst and best days in the market

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Timing the market is risky

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The cost of market timing

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Behavioral biases could be costly

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Asset values have grown over time

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Asset performance—correlations

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Stocks and bonds correlations have moved higher

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Finding a potential balance between risk and reward

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Net flows of mutual funds (MFs) and exchange-traded funds (ETFs)

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Active versus passive heat map

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Moderate growth and income quilt chart

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