The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) climbed higher during the third quarter. A resilient U.S. economy coupled with an expectation for higher U.S. interest rates fostered support for the dollar, highlighting U.S. optimism relative to other major currencies.
We expect the DXY to range-trade at current levels, or slightly higher, through year-end, supported by a more resilient U.S. economy compared to conditions in Europe, Japan, and the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) nations.
A stronger dollar and deteriorating European data by quarter-end contributed to the euro slipping below 1.08, a level it traded above for most of the quarter. We believe that the euro will remain near current levels, as the European Central Bank should keep rates higher for longer to tackle inflation in the region.
Disappointed expectations of an early Bank of Japan policy change, coupled with an uptick in U.S. rate expectations saw the yen decline below 145 late in the quarter, its weakest level since late 2022. A continued cooling of a China recovery euphoria and the weaker yuan also weighed on the yen.
The dollar’s appreciation also affected emerging market (EM) currencies. Continued declines in the yuan dragged Asian and other commodity-linked currencies broadly lower.
We expect that EM currencies may follow the dollar’s range trading in the fourth quarter. We do not foresee yuan weakness extending much further; higher rates in EM countries may offer better support than for developed market (DM) counterparts.
Wells Fargo Investment Institute (WFII)
Individual Market Charts For use With; Clients and Prospects
INSTRUCTIONS ON ASSEMBLING AN INDIVIDUAL MARKET CHART PRESENTATION
The first page of the presentation must be the Market Chartbook Cover page (Market Charts:
Turning Data into Knowledge) which includes the retail non-deposit investment product
(RNDIP)/Not, No, May disclosure. Chartbook data is updated quarterly. Please
check the effective date on the Cover page to be sure you are assembling the most recent
information available. In Digital Market Charts, this is automatically added as the
opening page of any collection you create.
The final page must be the General Disclosure page which identifies Global Investment Strategy
as a division of WFII and Wells Fargo Advisors as the broker-dealer. In Digital Market
Charts, this is automatically added as the closing page of any collection you
In between the Cover and the General Disclosures pages you may include any individual chart(s)
you decide upon. If a chart contains a separate disclosure page, that page will automatically
accompany the particular chart chosen. For example, if you wish to include the Fixed Income
Scorecard as one of your selected charts, it will automatically be accompanied by the
disclosures on the following page.
After assembling, submit to your Qualified Supervisor for review and approval in compliance with
the Communication Compliance Submission process as outlined in your LOB’s CAR Guide. Slides used
without alteration and with the proper disclosures need Qualified Supervisor review. They don’t
need to go through CAR.
If printed, the chart slides must be printed one per page to ensure that disclosures on the
slides are legible. These pre-approved slides may not be altered in any way or combined onto a