Sources: Bloomberg, International Monetary Fund, and Wells Fargo Investment Institute. Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) is designed to measure consumer confidence, which is defined as the degree of optimism on the state of the economy that consumers are expressing through their activities of savings and spending. Global consumer confidence is not measured. Consumer confidence scale differs by region or country. Up or down arrow indicates an increasing or decreasing level from the previous quarter. GDP = gross domestic product. YOY = year over year. U.S. Manufacturing Index level is the Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing Index®, which is a composite index based on the diffusion indexes of five of the indexes with equal weights: new orders, production, employment, supplier deliveries, and inventories. Global, eurozone, Japan, and China Manufacturing Index levels use the Markit Manufacturing PMI Index, which is an index developed from monthly business surveys used to monitor the condition of industries and businesses. An index value over 50 indicates expansion; below 50 indicates contraction. The values for the index can be between 0 and 100.
1. World GDP growth as of December 31, 2021.
2. World inflation as of December 31, 2021. Eurozone inflation as of September 30, 2022.
3. China consumer confidence as of August 31, 2022.
4. Eurozone, Japan, and China unemployment rate as of August 31, 2022.
- We expect a global growth slowdown through 2023, led by recessions in the U.S., Europe, the U.K., and possibly Japan. A moderate, but broad based recovery in next year’s second half will extend across China, the U.S., Europe, and Japan.
- Based on historical trends, we expect high inflation to decline slowly at first, then gain momentum by early 2023.