Global economy scorecard

Sources: Bloomberg, International Monetary Fund, and Wells Fargo Investment Institute. Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) is designed to measure consumer confidence, which is defined as the degree of optimism on the state of the economy that consumers are expressing through their activities of savings and spending. Global consumer confidence is not measured. Consumer confidence scale differs by region or country. Up or down arrow indicates an increasing or decreasing level from the previous quarter. GDP = gross domestic product. YOY = year over year. U.S. Manufacturing Index level is the Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing Index®, which is a composite index based on the diffusion indexes of five of the indexes with equal weights: new orders, production, employment, supplier deliveries, and inventories. Global, eurozone, Japan, and China Manufacturing Index levels use the Markit Manufacturing PMI Index, which is an index developed from monthly business surveys used to monitor the condition of industries and businesses. An index value over 50 indicates expansion; below 50 indicates contraction. The values for the index can be between 0 and 100.

1. World GDP growth and inflation is the GDP-weighted average of developed (42%) and emerging (58%) market percent change in the latest four quarters from the same year ago period as of September 30, 2023.
2. China consumer confidence as of November 30, 2023.
3. Eurozone, Japan, and China unemployment rate as of November 30, 2023.

Key Takeaways

  • We expect a global growth slowdown, led by a recession in Europe and China’s disappointing growth recovery. A moderate global recovery should gather momentum in the back half of 2024, led by the U.S. and extending to China, Europe, and Japan.
  • We expect more noticeable disinflation globally in the early part of 2024 as the economic slowdown undercuts demand.