Sources: Bloomberg, International Monetary Fund, and Wells Fargo Investment Institute. Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) is designed to measure consumer confidence, which is defined as the degree of optimism on the state of the economy that consumers are expressing through their activities of savings and spending. Global consumer confidence is not measured. Consumer confidence scale differs by region/country. Up or down arrow indicates an increasing or decreasing level from the previous quarter. GDP = gross domestic product. YOY = year over year. U.S. Manufacturing Index level is the Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing Index®, which is a composite index based on the diffusion indexes of five of the indexes with equal weights: new orders, production, employment, supplier deliveries, and inventories. Global, eurozone, Japan, and China Manufacturing Index levels use the Markit Manufacturing PMI Index, which is an index developed from monthly business surveys used to monitor the condition of industries and businesses. An index value over 50 indicates expansion; below 50 indicates contraction. The values for the index can be between 0 and 100.
1. World GDP growth and inflation data are estimates as of December 31, 2021.
2. Japan and China consumer confidence data as of February 28, 2022.
3. Eurozone, Japan, and China unemployment data as of February 28, 2022.
- We expect the U.S. to remain a growth locomotive in 2022 as China’s economy struggles with fallout from the pandemic, the war in Ukraine, and economic strategy changes.
- We believe global economic fallout from the pandemic and the war will help keep inflation elevated into 2023.