Global map with International Monetary Fund estimates of percent contribution to global GDP for select countries and regions for December 2023. Developed markets: 41.1%, Emerging markets: 58.9%, G7 countries: 29.9%, U.S. 15.4%, Canada 1.4%, U.K. 2.2%, European Union: 14.5%, Germany 3.2%, France 2.2%, Italy 1.8%, Spain 1.4%, Emerging Europe: 7.4%, Russia 2.9%, Turkey 2.1%, Emerging Americas: 7.3%, Brazil 2.3%, Mexico 1.9%, Japan 3.7%, Australia 1.0%, South Korea 1.7%, Emerging Asia: 33.5%, China 18.8%, India 7.5%, Indonesia 2.5%, Thailand 0.9%, Middle East/North Africa: 6.2%, Egypt 1.0%, Sub-Saharan Africa: 3.1%.
Sources: International Monetary Fund and Wells Fargo Investment Institute. 2023 GDP estimates as of December 31, 2023. G7 countries include Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States. GDP = gross domestic product.
Key Takeaways
- Tightening credit, slumping foreign trade, dollar strength, and the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East are all expected to keep global economic growth below its long-term (3.5%) average through 2024. Europe’s economy is most exposed to the Russia-Ukraine war, but all areas are vulnerable to some combination of global headwinds in coming months.
- We still anticipate a global growth recovery in the second half of 2024, responding to slowing inflation and lower interest rates.