How does the current bull stack up?

Sources: Bloomberg and Wells Fargo Investment Institute. Daily data. 2020–current bull super cycle uses Bloomberg Commodity Index from March 18, 2020 to March 31, 2022. 1999–2008 bull super cycle uses Bloomberg Commodity Index from July 13, 1999 to July 2, 2008. 1971–1980 bull super cycle uses Reuters Continuous Commodity Index from October 4, 1971 to November 20, 1980. Super cycle = If you look at commodity prices over the very long term (hundreds of years), it becomes evident that they tend to move in overall bull and bear cycles, some lasting decades. These are super cycles. The Reuters Continuous Commodity Index is an equal-weighted geometric average of commodity price levels relative to the base year average price. The Bloomberg Commodity Index is calculated on an excess return basis and reflects commodity futures price movements. The index rebalances annually, weighted two-thirds by trading volume and one-third by world production, and weight-caps are applied at the commodity, sector, and group level for diversification. An index is unmanaged and not available for direct investment. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investing in commodities is not suitable for all investors. The commodities markets are considered speculative, carry substantial risks, and have experienced periods of extreme volatility.

Super cycle = If you look at commodity prices over the very long term (hundreds of years), it becomes evident that they tend to move in overall bull and bear cycles, some lasting decades. These are super cycles.

Key Takeaways

  • Since 2020’s low, commodity prices have been on an incredible run. If we are correct that a new bull super cycle has begun, history suggests that there could be even more gains to come.
  • Keep in mind that past bull super cycles have not been straight up. We expect to see dips, lulls, and pauses in commodity prices during the bull.