Change in U.S. GDP
Left Y-axis: Real GDP (QoQ% SAAR), right y-axis: Real GDP (QoQ% SAAR); x-axis: quarterly, 2015 Q4 – 2022 Q4(E)
Line shows GDP or GDP estimate from Wells Fargo Securities.
U.S. GDP for most of this time period has been positive, fluctuating between a high of 3.9% (Q4 2017) and a low of 0.6% (Q4 of 2015). In Q4 2019 GDP was just above 2% but fell to more than -5% at the end of Q1 2020. By Q2 GDP declined by more than -31%, followed by a sharp recovery to more than 33% in Q3, declining to 6.9% by Q4 2021.
The Wells Fargo Securities estimates for the four quarters of 2022: Q1 2022 0.6%, Q2 1.2%, Q3 2.3%, and Q4 2.2%.
Sources: Bloomberg, Wells Fargo Securities, and Wells Fargo Investment Institute. Quarterly data from October 1, 2015 to December 31, 2021. Q1 2022–Q4 2022 are Wells Fargo Securities forecasts, as of April 7, 2022. Forecasts are not guaranteed and are subject to change. GDP = gross domestic product. QOQ = quarter over quarter. SAAR = seasonally adjusted annual rate.
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- The war in Ukraine and lingering aftershocks from the pandemic pose twin threats to rapid growth reinforced last year by successive rounds of fiscal and monetary stimulus during the opening months of 2021.
- Recent headwinds to economic growth from the pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war likely will test the stock market’s earnings-driven rally by supporting inflation, the Federal Reserve’s policy shift, and interest-rate increases capable of squeezing stock valuations.