Â
Global map with International Monetary Fund estimates of percent contribution to global GDP for select countries and regions for December 2023. Developed markets: 41.1%, Emerging markets: 58.9%, G7 countries: 29.9%, U.S. 15.4%, Canada 1.4%, U.K. 2.2%, European Union: 14.5%, Germany 3.2%, France 2.2%, Italy 1.8%, Spain 1.4%, Emerging Europe: 7.4%, Russia 2.9%, Turkey 2.1%, Emerging Americas: 7.3%, Brazil 2.3%, Mexico 1.9%, Japan 3.7%, Australia 1.0%, South Korea 1.7%, Emerging Asia: 33.5%, China 18.8%, India 7.5%, Indonesia 2.5%, Thailand 0.9%, Middle East/North Africa: 6.2%, Egypt 1.0%, Sub-Saharan Africa: 3.1%.
Sources: International Monetary Fund and Wells Fargo Investment Institute. 2023 contribution to global GDP as of December 31, 2023. G7 countries include Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States. GDP = gross domestic product.
Key Takeaways
- We believe tight credit conditions, tepid foreign trade, U.S. dollar strength, and the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East will keep global economic growth below its long-term (3.5%) average through 2024. Europe’s economy is most exposed to the Russia-Ukraine war, but all areas are vulnerable to some combination of global headwinds in coming months.
- We still anticipate a global growth recovery later in 2024, responding to further disinflation and a Federal Reserve policy pivot to rate cuts.